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May 23, 2007

Can Anyone Beat Jimmie at His Track
Fantasy Insight-Lowe's Motor Speedway World 600
By Dennis Michelsen
Picking the chalks (favorites) is not my cup of tea! Oh sure it can improve your handicapping percentages but any Tom, Dick, or Harry can pick Jimmie Johnson this weekend at Lowes Motor Speedway. Johnson has won five of the last eight races here. In those eight races his worst finish has been third place! In eleven career starts at his home track he has only finished outside of the top seven once, his first start ever. But taking Jimmie Johnson or any of the Hendrick Motorsports cars that have dominated the 2007 season is too easy. Expert handicappers need to dive into the stats and find that upset winner. At odds of 3-1 in Vegas Jimmie Johnson is a lousy bet this week. Too many things can happen in a stock car race to ever bet anyone under 5-1! So while you do want to include Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon on your Fantasy Race Team lineups this week I will give you three guys to play that upset role this week. Martin Truex Jr could add his name to an impressive list of first time winners at Lowes Motor Speedway. (Seven names strong including David Pearson, Buddy Baker, and Jeff Gordon) Carl Edwards has the second best average finish of any driver here at Lowes and is a great value play at 20-1 odds. But my pick to pull the upset has had a "Fustratin" season to this point. The car has been fast each and every week but the pit crew and bad luck has let him down. But this week Mrs. Hamlin has a fresh batch of cookies ready and Gibbs Racing gave Denny Hamlin a new crew. Look for Hamlin to score the upset at a healthy 16-1 payoff. Good luck with your fantasy picks this week.

Fast Facts of the Week
Jimmie Johnson's "Horses for Courses" factor is an absurdly high 99 out of 100

Jimmie Johnson's winning percentage is over 46% at Lowes Motor Speedway

Despite the race being 600 miles qualifying is still important, only 5% of winners have started outside of the top 20

Thirteen of 96 races have been won by the Bud Pole winner, but only one in the past 17 races (Jimmie Johnson, 2004 Coca-Cola 600)

The last seven races have been won from a top-10 starting position

There have been just three different race winners in the last eight races: Jimmie Johnson (five), Kasey Kahne (two) and Tony Stewart (one)

Jeff Gordon has won from the pole three times, most of any active driver. David Pearson also won from the pole three times

Hendrick Motorsports drivers have led more than 35% of all laps run in 2007

Rowdy Fantasy
Need more help with your Fantasy games? Check out Rowdy Fantasy at www.rowdy.com for our exclusive weekly feature. Looking for the ultimate source for stock car racing news, even during the off-season? Rowdy has it all--the best news, garage gossip, and insight from drivers, crew chiefs, reporters, and even you fans--all right on your cell phone each and every day! We do more in 5 minutes than most racing sources do in a day!

If you've only got time for one racing show, Rowdy is the real deal. So yes, Rowdy is the only racing show you'll ever need - and it's on your cell every day!

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Fan1st Fantasy Racing
Fan1st is giving race fans a chance to win the greatest prize in Fantasy Racing history. Can you imagine being picked up for the race at your hometown airport in a private jet and flown to Daytona International Speedway? You can invite three people along for the experience of a lifetime learning what it is like to be an owner in the Busch series! Fan1st.com is the sponsor on the No. 32 car driven by driver Dave Blaney in the Busch series for owner Todd Braun. This year their Fantasy Racing game is included in their Diamond Membership package or you can purchase entry to the race game separately. Fan1st puts the fan in charge voting on important team matters! Their Fantasy Racing game has the best prize every offered and is a bargain to enter for $75 for the whole season! You build your team selecting a driver, crew chief, manufacturer, and owner in a salary cap format.

http://www.fan1st.com/index.html

Prize Note: Tom from Connecticut wins a Diamond Membership playing Fantasy Insight's FLIP FLOPS. Listen this week on www.racetalkradio.com Wednesday night at 10pm ET to see how you can play and win this week's prize!

Fantasy Racing by the Numbers
My unique Power Ratings are back and better than ever for 2007! Combining the three most important factors the numbers never lie. Separate the pretenders from the contenders each week with track type, horses for courses, and consistency factored into one easy to use Power Rating. The key numbers to remember are 80 and 250. A rating of 80 is an acceptable risk for any of the individual ratings and 320 is the cut off for the complete Power Rating. Drivers topping these minimums have a much higher percentage of top ten finishes over the past three seasons! (Only drivers meeting the minimum will be shown in the individual ratings with the top 25 for Power Ratings shown)

Picking a Winner
Each week I will attempt to handicap the winners showing the three drivers I think are most likely to come home a winner! Also the TOP ROOKIE and BEST OUTSIDE TOP 20 will be forecast so you get a complete handicapping picture for the upcoming race.

Winner-Denny Hamlin
Last Week 1st
Strong runs but "Fustratin" finishes so far

Place-Carl Edwards
Last Week 3rd
Does he remember how to flip after a Cup race?

Show- Martin Truex Jr
Last Week 37th
Would join an impressive list of first time winners

Top Rookie- Paul Menard
Last Week 31st (3rd best rookie)
Needs to get in on time but could post top 15

Outside Top 20 in Points- Joe Nemechek
Last Week 28th
Fourth best "Horses for Courses" rating

Wednesday on Race Talk Radio
7pm Eastern- Cargo Light Review with Lori Munro
Every week let RaceTalkRadio's Lori Munro take you for a ride…literally! Strap in tight because this will be an adventurous tour of all things truck racing from the inside of her Chevy Silverado. Join Lori every week for the most unique thirty minutes in radio, she might even buy you a cup of coffee at the drive through. It's racing news, fun, and great music every week on the "Cargo Light Review."

7:30pm Eastern-Getting Dirty with CJ Swank
Join OntheBullRing.com's CJ Swank and get down and dirty inside the world of dirt track racing! From the World of Outlaws to the Modifieds and Late Models to those all important support divisions, CJ covers it all. You have read her reports on dirt track racing from the Northeastern quarter of the USA at OntheBullRing.com now tune in every week to hear CJ get down and dirty!

8pm Eastern-Fantasy Insight-Need help with your Fantasy Racing lineup? Each week we go beyond the stats to pick winners! Join Dennis Michelsen and Mike Harper every week as they play head to head in Flip Flops. You can win great prizes by picking the winning fantasy handicapper each week.

8:30pm Eastern-Racing Rock Star with Gannon Hollywood-Gannon is the jackman on the No. 47 NASCAR Busch team, and yes that is his real name! His videos will be featured on SPEED CHANNEL and his exclusive radio show will be heard on www.racetalkradio.com every week!

9pm Eastern-Quick Change- Dennis Michelsen, Mike Harper and Lori Munro bring you cutting edge commentary and their own personal unique spins on the world of all things racing. Our weekly guests will try to keep up! Tune in and just try to hang on every Wednesday night.