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July 18, 2007

Mid Year Report Card-Fantasy Insight
By Dennis Michelsen
The first nineteen races of the 2007 season have flown past. It seems like just yesterday we were getting you ready for the Daytona 500 and now both Daytona races are in the books! Let's take this off week to examine the statistics and see if there are any trends that could help us in the second half of the season.

Unique Statistics
Forget NASCAR's loop statistics those do not give us the information we need to make informed Fantasy Racing decisions. Just like the championship chase, Fantasy Racing is all about picking guys that consistently perform week in and week out. We don't need to pick the winners just need to avoid the guys finishing outside of the top 20. One statistic that I find helpful is "Lead Lap Finishes." If a driver is able to finish on the lead lap he has done a decent job of staying in the hunt.

The biggest surprise is that Hendrick Motorsports driver Jimmie Johnson has fewer Lead Lap Finishes than part timer Mark Martin. Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle who started the season poorly have just as many Lead Lap Finishes as Johnson.

Laps Led Surprises
Another statistic I like to look at is the Laps Led leaders. There is no better judge of contending teams than how many laps they have led during the season. Only 12 drivers have lead 100 or more laps in the first 19 races of the season. Fifteen guys have led at least 50 laps with only twenty-two drivers leading 25 or more laps. These are the guys you want on your Fantasy Racing team!

The most surprising result from this chart is that Brian Vickers has led the 13th most laps while only competing in 10 races. The big four are no surprise and are the best threats for the championship. The fifth place driver has led only half as many laps as those big four showing how dominant those top guys have been this season!

Average Finish
While NASCAR tries to dazzle everyone with the glitzy and goofy loop statistical categories, the most reliable statistic is the oldest one in the book…average finish. Just how dominant has Jeff Gordon been in the first 19 races of 2007? I could throw all kinds of point ratings and power figures at you, but the best indication is that his average finish has been over 4 places better than the second place driver! This is a level of dominance rarely seen in NASCAR! Last season the difference between the top 2 drivers was just 0.1 position! Six drivers were within the same gap that exists between first place Jeff Gordon and second place Mark Martin after 19 races. If you look at just full time drivers the gap is a whopping 4.7 positions! Ten drivers were within that spread in the final standings in 2006 versus champion Jimmie Johnson. Without the Chase for the Championship format Jeff Gordon would be on cruise control this season!

Top Ten

First Time Winners-Second Half
Digging into the statistics deeper we can see some trends that might suggest who is likely to break out as a first time winner in the second half of the season. While the "Flavor of the Month" is Clint Bowyer, some other drivers have shown stronger statistical evidence that they might break through too. JJ Yeley and Reed Sorenson are the only other two guys cracking the top ten in "Lead Lap Finishes" along with Bowyer that have yet to win a race. The only two drivers making the top 20 in "Laps Led" that have never won a race are Clint Bowyer and Dave Blaney. Only Bowyer and JJ Yeley crack the top 20 in average finishing position among those drivers having never won a Nextel Cup race.