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February 13, 2007

Handicapping Those Toyotas
By Dennis Michelsen

Everyone seems a bit concerned with the attack of NASCAR by Toyota. The question is not IF the manufacturer will develop strong teams but rather WHEN. If the Craftsman Truck series is any value predicting the outcome of the Nextel Cup series success is also a big question. When Toyota made its debut over in the trucks it only took them thirteen races to get their first win. In comparison it only took Dodge seven races to get their first truck win but the series was much different way back in 1997! Dodge would take twenty-three races to find their way to Victory Lane in the Cup division. Handicapping these Toyotas will be tricky this season.

New Teams Versus Established Teams
No matter how smart someone is in preparing a team to win, the Nextel Cup division can be tough to master in year one. Ray Evernham was arguably one of the most talented Crew Chiefs in the history of the sport! It took Evernham Motorsports thirty-four tries to win their first race. Both Bill Davis Racing and Ganassi Racing were able to win with the new Dodge before Ray. This shows the advantage of having an established team even if the talent level of the team might be a little less than a new team. Of the Toyota teams, only Bill Davis Racing is an established team in NASCAR. Red Bull Racing and Michael Waltrip Racing had to throw a lot of people together in a hurry to form their NASCAR Nextel Cup teams. This could lead to some growing pains early in the year.

Toyota Research and Development
The key to early success for the Toyota teams will be their ability to share information. Since all but two of their drivers are not guaranteed a spot in the starting lineup the first five races, sharing information might not appear to be in the best interest of the individual drivers! But sharing testing information and how the new engine is performing is key to getting Toyota to make the field every week. The old saying in racing is that, "To finish first you must first finish." Of course even simpler than that is the fact to win the race you first have to qualify to start! Sharing information among teams is crucial to gaining success early this season.

Never Such Full Fields
When Dodge came into Cup racing there were not this many well funded teams competing every week. We saw car counts over fifty for the big races, but the number of well-funded teams hovered around thirty to thirty-five. This season the addition of the extra Toyota teams at the same time a few other teams have been added or expanded makes this season crazier than ever on qualifying day. Fifty well-funded teams will be lining up each and every week with forty-five of those teams capable of running in the top ten on any given week! The change in qualifying rules stacks the deck against all of the new teams this season too. If you miss more than one race out of the first five you can forget grabbing one of those coveted spots in the top thirty-five this season! Even teams that miss just one race will face a big uphill battle!

Handicapping the Toyota teams will be difficult this season. Teams tested ok out at Las Vegas but how they will perform week in and week out is a huge question mark going into the season! My money will be on Dave Blaney with Bill Davis Racing showing the way in the early going. Michael Waltrip Racing might have to lean on that past champion provisional just to grab one spot in the coveted top thirty-five. Toyota did not come to Nextel Cup racing to go home on Friday; they came to win on Sunday! Silly Season might be earlier and sillier than ever if good teams struggle early in 2007.